Let’s get this out on the table now. The Sooners are not going to win at Tennessee.
And, it won’t be because there are 105,000 orange-clad Volunteer fans yelling in the stadium — a statistic lazy sports writer nubes harped about all week, as if the Sooners have never before played in a big game or in a big stadium.
It will be because the Sooner defense hasn’t proven to me they can step up against a strong offense.
The Tennessee volunteers have a strong offense.
The key matchup will be the Vols running game vs. the Oklahoma run defense.
Tennessee ran for 399 yards in a 59-30 victory over Bowling Green last week, which marked the Volunteers’ best single-game rushing total since 1994. Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd each went over 100 yards. QB Joshua Dobbs added 89 yards.
Their mobile QB will give the Sooners fits.
But, Oklahoma ranked eighth nationally in run defense last year and allowed 3.1 yards per carry in a season-opening 41-3 triumph over Akron. The Sooners are no slouches in that department.
Still the Tennessee run offense will allow them to control the clock. The Sooners pass happy offense won’t burn much time at all.
Coach Butch Jones knows winning against Oklahoma at home would be like a sling shot for their program. Their players know that too. A so-so conference season could still be capped with a win over Oklahoma
Coach Butch Jones knows winning against Oklahoma at home would be like a sling shot for their program. Their players know that too. A so-so conference season could still be capped with a win over Oklahoma
Yes, Tennessee will win. But, it won’t be because the Sooner QB is new, or the Air Raid scheme instituted this year is too fresh. The Sooners will score. A weak showing by the Vols defense against Bowling Green last week tells us the Sooners will score.
It will be because the Oklahoma run game is anemic right now. Not because of any deficiency at running back — the Sooners will still have the best pair of running backs on the field on Saturday with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. It will be because two newbie offensive tackles will get pushed around by the Tennessee front four.
It won’t be because of any deficiency in the kicking game. New OU kicker Austin Siebert is the real deal. He showed poise and strong foot last week and we expect him to do the same in Knoxville.
It will be because, even when the Oklahoma defense forces a punt, the Sooners punt return game is fumble and bad-decision prone. I don’t won’t to rag on Sterling Shepherd. He is one of the best WRs in the country. But, his days as a punt return man are numbered. At least we hope so.
A fumble on a punt return in this game could be the difference between winning or losing.
All said, this will be a good game. The Sooners could play well and still lose. That’s because this really is a bigger game for Tennessee than it is for Oklahoma.
Tennessee knows it will not compete for the SEC championship this year. The program is still several years away from doing that. But, Coach Butch Jones knows winning against Oklahoma at home would be like a sling shot for their program. Their players know that too. A so-so conference season could still be capped with a win over Oklahoma. And, as Boise State will tell you, beating Oklahoma is a BIG deal that a team can ride on for years to come.
The Volunteers have lost 27 of their last 28 games against Top 25 teams. This is Tennessee’s chance to right that ship.
On the other hand, a win for Oklahoma isn’t going to add much to the Sooners trophy case. OU beat Tennessee last year in Norman. Tennessee is not one of the elite SEC teams. There isn’t that much to gain.
But, before anyone gets down on a loss, there isn’t really much for Oklahoma to lose either.
This may be a sling shot for Tennessee, but a loss to Oklahoma won’t seriously damage the season.
The Sooners are clearly the third best team in the Big 12 — if not better. The only question this year is whether Oklahoma can beat TCU in Norman and/or Baylor in Waco. If they can, then the Sooners are in the college football playoff picture.
A loss to Tennessee won’t make one Rocky Top difference in that.
Hopefully, I’m wrong and the Sooners embarrass all those Vols along the Tennessee River on Saturday night. But Oklahoma will have to go prove it on the field.
-Mike
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