Editor’s Note: The following observations were made in advance of Saturday’s game against Akron but were lost in the ether world of the internet. But the Akron game doesn’t really change the thoughts expressed so we hereby publish it belatedly with a post game addendum.
EXPECTATIONS VS PERFORMANCE
In the fall of 1972 I entered the University of Oklahoma as a first year law student. I chose to attend OU for many reasons, not the least of which was the 1971 Thanksgiving day Nebraska game which, in my mind. presaged championship football during my three years at the University.
Imagine my surprise, upon arrival in Norman, to find that there was not universal acceptance of the “fact” that OU had the best team in the nation. This was back in the days of my youth when I started every football season with the unshakable belief that we would go undefeated and spend New Year’s evening celebrating another national championship after a rousing Sugar Bowl win.
I couldn’t believe we weren’t unanimously ranked No.1.
I remember sitting in the coffee shop in the student union with my fellow law students assuring each other that Oklahoma historically does better in those seasons where expectations were low at the beginning. None of us had any evidence of this “fact.” I think we were just trying to reassure ourselves that we were in the hunt for a national championship that year.
My recollections, however, raise an interesting point as we enter the 2015 season with a preseason ranking of 19. So, a little research:
* Unranked assumes team ended in 26th place, but may in fact have been ranked lower. Thus, the drop off in those years when OU finished unranked may have been worse than shown. Pre season rankings are the consensus of the major polls.
What to make of all this. Perhaps nothing. When confronted with adverse statistical evidence, lawyers frequently tell jurors “Liars figure and figures lie.”
But it’s tempting to say that in his six year tenure, Gary Gibbs finished a total of 19 places lower in the rankings than were predicted by ”experts” at the beginning of each year, for an average under-performance of 3.16 places per year.
In contrast, Bob Stoops has fallen short of the “experts” preseason evaluations by 70 places over his 16 year tenure, for an average under-performance of 4.37 places per year.
And if you don’t include the championship year of 2000, when arguably a relatively unknown coach and team snuck up on people, Stoop’s teams have fallen short of preseason expectations by 90 positions over the other fifteen years for an average under-performance of 6.0 positions per year.
There are lots of reasons why this could occur. One is that the so-called “experts” don’t know what they are talking about when it comes to preseason rankings. It seems to me, however, that the two most logical possibilities are 1) that the coaching staff is not getting the maximum performance out of the players’ potential and/or 2) that the coaching staff is not recruiting adequate talent.
We all remember Barry Switzer telling us that talent wins games and the teams that win are the teams with the talent. While I am nowhere near ready to call for the coach’s head, it may be time to quit living in the distant past to ask “What have you done for me lately?” I think coach Stoops has taken steps to improve the coaching. Let’s hope that those changes will also improve the recruiting.
While I am nowhere near ready to call for the coach’s head, it may be time to quit living in the distant past to ask “What have you done for me lately?”
While I am nowhere near ready to call for the coach’s head, it may be time to quit living in the distant past to ask “What have you done for me lately?”
POST AKRON GAME ADDENDUM:
With the foregoing thoughts freshly in mind, the first quarter of Saturday’s game caused some foreboding on my part. It was unsettling when the best thing to that point was that the freshman kicker was living up to his advanced billing as a punter.
And even though the defense was stuffing Akron, it’s not like Akron had a lot of offensive weapons. One offensive first down, lot’s of penalties, zero running yards, minimal passing yards and 3 points. Not the performance of a top 20 team playing a lower echelon MAC team.
Apparently coach Riley kept the troops spirits up, however, assuring them that the “floodgates would open.” And, did they ever. It was like days of old in the passing game. Several players had flashes demonstrating great potential.
However, it was just Akron. We’ll have a much better idea of our abilities and potential after next week’s game with a resurgent Tennessee team.
As an aside, I was driving through Knoxville the Friday before last year’s game with Tennessee listening to a Sports Talk radio show (for DUI cases, DUI laws explained by Toland Law Firm can be checked out) . The Vols were talking big, saying the previous year’s bowl win over Alabama was a fluke and that OU was overrated. I snorted in derision as they dissed my fourth-ranked Sooners. Little did I know at that time that they were right.
So maybe all that coffee shop talk 43 years ago about OU doing better when expectations aren’t as high had some merit. We’ll get a better idea next Saturday whether something higher than 19 is possible.
— Gary
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